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Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 through November 30


RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202308
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several 
hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. 

A trough of low pressure, extending from the Yucatan Channel
southeastward into the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western 
Caribbean Sea.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable 
during the next several days and therefore development of this 
system is not anticipated as it drifts westward during the next few 
days.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
 As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Oct 20
 the center of Epsilon was located near 28.2, -56.3
 with movement NW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 992 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 202332
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020
 
...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 56.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 56.3 West.  Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday.  On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer
to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island
on Thursday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early
Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km),
mainly to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 202045
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  55.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......280NE  90SE  30SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 150SE 360SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N  55.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  55.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.8N  57.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE  10SW  60NW.
34 KT...300NE 100SE  60SW 270NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N  59.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...280NE 110SE  80SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.3N  60.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...230NE 130SE  90SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N  61.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N  61.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.0N  61.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.7N  60.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 42.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N  55.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 202049
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020
 
Epsilons structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep 
convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small 
central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery. 
Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in 
nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some 
dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even 
some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent 
visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several 
45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its 
organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification 
from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this 
advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds 
extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle.
 
The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated 
motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to 
move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days 
as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The 
tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward 
and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these 
trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is 
now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday 
night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should 
move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could 
be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races 
northeastward across the central Atlantic.
 
Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental 
factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air 
noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the 
storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in 
the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional 
strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies 
well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely 
follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength 
overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with 
lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to 
level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA 
aids through the rest of the forecast period.

 
Key Message:
 
1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early 
Friday.  While it is too soon to determine the exact details of 
Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm 
conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous 
surf conditions also likely. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 27.9N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 28.8N  57.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 29.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 30.3N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 31.6N  61.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 33.0N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 34.0N  61.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 36.7N  60.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 42.0N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 202046
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  13(25)  14(39)   7(46)   X(46)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics

Tropical Storm Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 23:37:43 GMT

Tropical Storm Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 21:25:11 GMT


Images courtesy of the National Hurricane Center